Research

Research Publications & Notes

Technical notes, evaluation methodology, and research briefs from SILENTPATTERN. All claims are bounded by explicit evidence and reproducible protocols.

Pillar 1

Causal Abstraction

Research into minimal representations that preserve intervention-relevant causal structure. Focus on identifiability, intervention accuracy, and stability under distribution shift.

  • Causal fidelity metrics under interventions
  • Baseline comparisons with causal discovery methods
  • Preregistered evaluation protocols
Pillar 2

Robust Forecasting

Methods for prediction under distribution shift. Emphasis on regime detection, calibration, and uncertainty quantification rather than point estimates.

  • Walk-forward evaluation with leakage controls
  • Calibration and reliability diagrams
  • Regime-aware model selection
Pillar 3

Reproducible Experimentation

Infrastructure for automated experiments with full audit trails. Every result is traceable from claim to evidence.

  • Experiment templates and baseline registries
  • Automatic ablation tracking
  • Report generation with uncertainty bounds
Pillar 4

Governed Autonomy

Research into agent systems with explicit constraints, audit trails, and fail-closed behaviors. Governance is a feature, not a limitation.

  • Permission scoping and approval gates
  • Action logging and transcript export
  • Human-in-the-loop checkpoints

Evaluation Philosophy

Protocol First

Define datasets, splits, baselines, and metrics before running experiments. If the protocol is weak, results do not count.

Claims Scale with Evidence

Public language remains bounded: "concept," "prototype," "validated" with explicit assumptions and limitations.

Uncertainty is Output

Calibration, confidence intervals, and failure modes are included in all reports. No claims without replicated benchmarks.

Current Work

IN PROGRESS

MCAP Benchmark Suite

Developing standardized benchmarks for causal abstraction quality across synthetic and real-world datasets.

Regime Detection Framework

Building tools for automatic regime identification and model switching under distribution shift.

Agent Governance Protocols

Defining permission hierarchies and audit requirements for autonomous research agents.

Research access is curated. Contact us for collaboration opportunities or evaluation partnerships.

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