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Program Concept

CHAI

Forecasting & Regime Inference Stack

Summary

CHAI is positioned as a forecasting pipeline that prioritizes robustness: regime detection, calibration, and evidence-first evaluation. The system is designed to handle distribution shift explicitly, with walk-forward evaluation protocols and leakage controls. Markets are adversarial; the protocol is the product.

In Scope
  • • Regime-aware forecasting with explicit distribution shift handling
  • • Walk-forward evaluation protocols
  • • Calibration and uncertainty reporting
  • • Leakage prevention and temporal validation
Out of Scope
  • • Investment advice or trading recommendations
  • • Guaranteed returns or performance claims
  • • Real-time trading execution
Evidence Capsule
What Exists Now
  • • Regime-aware framing with explicit distribution shift handling
  • • Initial evaluation framework and methodology
What Comes Next
  • • Planned: walk-forward evaluation + leakage controls
  • • Planned: calibration and uncertainty reporting
  • • Planned: robustness testing across assets and regimes
Evaluation Protocol

Evaluation focuses on strict temporal splits to prevent look-ahead bias, realistic transaction cost modeling, sensitivity analysis to slippage assumptions, and robustness testing across multiple assets and market regimes. All results include uncertainty estimates and explicit failure mode reporting.

The protocol emphasizes methodology transparency: walk-forward validation, leakage prevention measures, and calibration metrics. Public copy emphasizes evaluation rigor rather than performance claims, avoiding any implication of guaranteed returns or high accuracy.

Access & Governance
  • • Public Overview: This page and high-level methodology documentation are publicly accessible.
  • • Controlled Demo: Interactive demonstrations available to qualified researchers upon request.
  • • Partner Evaluation: Full technical documentation, evaluation protocols, and access to experimental harnesses available to research partners.
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